Inflation data for May came as a surprise to many pundits – the expectation had been for inflation, as measured by the Consumer Prices Index (CPI), to remain at April’s level of 2.7% but instead, National Statistics revealed that annual inflation had reached 2.9% (3.7% on the Retail Prices Index yardstick) – of equal shock was the June figure, which showed a reversal of the trend, with inflation dropping back to 2.6%.
It is the first fall in the rate since October 2016 and was largely down to lower petrol and diesel prices.
However, even taking into account the June ‘surprise’, the last time inflation was at this level was June 2013, as the graph shows. Since then it has taken a rollercoaster ride to around zero for much of 2015, only to surge upwards in the past year: in May 2016 CPI inflation was just 0.3%.
At 2.9% in May, inflation was already above where the Bank of England had been expecting it to peak later this year. If the inflation rate does rise later this year, as many economists predict, then Mark Carney, the Bank’s Governor, may well have to write a letter to the Chancellor explaining why the inflation target has been missed by more than 1%. It’s already clear what he would say from statements issued recently by the Bank: blame the fall in sterling since the Brexit vote.
The Bank sees little respite in the short term. In the press release issued in June alongside its interest rate decision, the Bank said inflation “is likely to remain above the target for an extended period as sterling’s depreciation continues to feed through into the prices of consumer goods and services”.
Keith Towler, Independent Financial Adviser at Pembroke Financial Services of Shoreham says “With many deposit accounts paying interest rates of under 1% before tax, this news is a wake-up call if you’re holding more cash than you need to. A year ago money on deposit was just about keeping pace with price increases, whereas now it’s losing buying power at the rate of about 2% a year.”
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